Adrian Kavanagh, 4th September 2011
The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll, published on 4th September offers varying fortunes for the two government parties, amounting to very good news for Fine Gael but dismal fortunes for Labour. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win a landslide victory based on these figures if they transpired in an election and would easily win enough seats to form a single party government, with many of their seat gains to be at the expense of their coalition partners, although Labour would also be predicted to lose seats to Sinn Fein. Better news is offered to Labour by the Red C-Paddy Power presidential election poll however, with my analysis suggesting that Michael D Higgins would win the election based on these figures, edging out Gay Mitchell on the final count by a margin of almost two hundred thousand votes.
This poll follows in the wake of recent Irish Times Ispos-MRBI, Red C and Millward Brown opinion polls in suggesting that Fine Gael support levels continue to remain strong over half a year after the February 2011 general election. Applying my constituency level analysis to these figures, seat estimates based on the simulated constituency support estimates suggest that Fine Gael would easily win a sufficient number of seats to form a majority single-party government if these figures were to be replicated in an election held today. The September 4th Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings as follows: Fine Gael 44% (up 10% relative to the last such poll on 12th February 2011), Labour 12% (down 11%), Fianna Fail 15% (No Change), Sinn Fein 13% (down 1% – but up 3% relative to their GE performance), Green Party 2% (No Change), Independents and Others 12% (down 2%).
Based solely on assigning seats on the basis of the constituency support estimates (simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats), party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 96, Labour 15, Fianna Fail 20, Sinn Fein 19, Green Party 0, Others 16. When the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns oberved in the February 2011 election) are accounted for and constituency marginality levels at the February 2011 election taken account of, the party seat levels would more than likely be as follows: Fine Gael 93, Labour 18, Fianna Fail 18, Sinn Fein 21, Green Party 0, Others 16.
The constituency support estimates based on the poll figures are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 24% | 47% | 10% | 12% | 3% | 3% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 16% | 44% | 3% | 31% | 1% | 6% |
| Clare | 20% | 53% | 9% | 0% | 2% | 15% |
| Cork East | 15% | 46% | 20% | 15% | 1% | 3% |
| Cork North Central | 14% | 34% | 17% | 21% | 1% | 13% |
| Cork North West | 21% | 57% | 8% | 9% | 1% | 3% |
| Cork South Central | 25% | 43% | 12% | 11% | 3% | 6% |
| Cork South West | 20% | 57% | 9% | 9% | 2% | 3% |
| Donegal North East | 14% | 37% | 6% | 31% | 1% | 11% |
| Donegal South West | 18% | 23% | 3% | 41% | 1% | 14% |
| Dublin Central | 14% | 27% | 19% | 19% | 2% | 19% |
| Dublin Mid West | 11% | 40% | 20% | 16% | 4% | 9% |
| Dublin North | 15% | 42% | 18% | 0% | 10% | 16% |
| Dublin North Central | 12% | 48% | 15% | 8% | 1% | 16% |
| Dublin North East | 11% | 39% | 23% | 17% | 2% | 9% |
| Dublin North West | 11% | 22% | 29% | 31% | 1% | 5% |
| Dublin South | 8% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 8% | 22% |
| Dublin South Central | 9% | 31% | 24% | 19% | 2% | 14% |
| Dublin South East | 10% | 46% | 17% | 5% | 8% | 15% |
| Dublin South West | 10% | 36% | 24% | 24% | 1% | 6% |
| Dublin West | 16% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 17% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 14% | 46% | 21% | 0% | 5% | 14% |
| Galway East | 16% | 52% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 15% |
| Galway West | 19% | 39% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 23% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 9% | 48% | 12% | 25% | 1% | 5% |
| Kerry South | 12% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 36% |
| Kildare North | 13% | 44% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 13% |
| Kildare South | 20% | 43% | 18% | 8% | 2% | 8% |
| Laois-Offaly | 23% | 41% | 5% | 14% | 0% | 16% |
| Limerick City | 18% | 53% | 12% | 11% | 1% | 4% |
| Limerick | 18% | 60% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 17% | 48% | 17% | 10% | 1% | 6% |
| Louth | 13% | 37% | 11% | 28% | 5% | 6% |
| Mayo | 12% | 72% | 3% | 8% | 0% | 5% |
| Meath East | 17% | 50% | 13% | 12% | 1% | 7% |
| Meath West | 15% | 52% | 8% | 21% | 1% | 3% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 13% | 47% | 6% | 13% | 1% | 21% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 18% | 44% | 6% | 17% | 1% | 13% |
| Tipperary North | 16% | 32% | 14% | 9% | 1% | 29% |
| Tipperary South | 12% | 44% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 30% |
| Waterford | 12% | 47% | 12% | 13% | 1% | 15% |
| Wexford | 17% | 44% | 13% | 8% | 1% | 17% |
| Wicklow | 9% | 49% | 11% | 13% | 2% | 17% |
| STATE | 15.3% | 44.9% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 12.2% |
Seat guesstimates based solely on these figures (using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency) and also taking account of the fact that Sean Barrett as Ceann Comhairle would be automatically re-elected in Dun Laoghaire, guaranteeing an extra Fine Gael seat there:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Cork East | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North Central | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North East | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Galway West | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kildare North | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Kildare South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Laois-Offaly | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Limerick City | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Mayo | 1 | 4 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Meath West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary South | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Waterford | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Wicklow | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| STATE | 20 | 96 | 15 | 19 | 0 | 16 |
When the model is amended to account for seats that may be won 0r lost on the basis of a large/small number of candidates contesting the election (e.g. Others being allocated a seat in Laois-Offaly mainly due to the large number of independent candidates who contested this constituency), vote transfers and vote management (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands), the seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Cork East | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North Central | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North East | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Galway West | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kildare North | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Limerick City | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Mayo | 1 | 4 | ||||
| Meath East | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Meath West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Waterford | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Wicklow | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| STATE | 18 | 93 | 18 | 21 | 0 | 16 |
Even though support levels for Fianna Fail and Independents/Others are seen not changed significantly relative to the general election result, the 1% loss of support by these parties added to increasing support levels for Sinn Fein (relative to the election, if not the previous poll) and Fine Gael means that some of their more marginal seats are seen to fall into Sinn Fein and Fine Gael’s hands, with both Sinn Fein and Fine Gael also predicted to gain seats as a result of Labour’s faltering support base, leaving the latter party with more than enough seats to form a single party government and the former in a position to establish themselves as the largest opposition party in the Dail. Just to the extent that these figures offer very good news for Sinn Fein and Fine Gael, these offer desultory news for Labour. Based on these figures, the Gilmore Gale has seemed to have well and truly blown itself out and the party seems to be returning the same support levels ‘enjoyed’ by the party at the general elections of 2002 and 2007.
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The September 8th Red C-Paddy Power poll (see details on this at politics.ie) puts support for the main candidates expected to be in October’s presidential election contest as follows: Gay Mitchell 24%, Michael D. Higgins 36%, Sean Gallagher 21%, Mary Davis 19 with second preferences expected to go as follows based on the poll figures: Gay Mitchell 20%, Michael D. Higgins 21%, Sean Gallagher 15%, Mary Davis 20%, Non Transferable 24%. Based on these poll figures, I would predict that Michael D. Higgins will win the election, beating Gay Mitchell on the final count by 714,864 votes to 517,420 votes.
First step in this model will be to estimate the turnout for the election. The turnout is likely to be lower than the turnout for the general election, but there will be likely to be more people voting than in the previous presidential election in 1997. Fortunately there was also a general election in 1997 and this can offer a yardstick to help guesstimate the turnout. The numbers turning out to vote increased by 24.1% between the general elections of 1997 (1,806,932 voting) and 2011 (2,243,176 voting). Applying the same level of increase to the number that turned out to vote in the presidential election of 1997 (1,279,688) gives us a turnout of 1,588,641 voters.
Based on the poll figures and this estimated turnout value, the first count would be as follows:
| Mitchell |
381,274 |
| Higgins |
571,911 |
| Gallagher |
333,615 |
| Davis |
301,842 |
Following the elimination of Davis and distribution of her transfers (in line with second preference poll figures), the second count would be as follows:
| Mitchell |
441,642 |
| Higgins |
635,297 |
| Gallagher |
378,891 |
| Non-transferable |
132,810 |
Following the elimination of Gallagher and distribution of his transfers, the third and final count would be as follows:
| Mitchell |
517,420 |
| Higgins |
714,864 |
| Non-transferable |
356,356 |
Of course it must be noted that it is very much early days in terms of the presidential race. While two candidates have been formally nominated to contest the election by their parties (Higgins and Mitchell) and two other candidates (Gallagher and Davis) have attained sufficient endorsements from local authorities to be allowed to stand, we still do not know what the final line-up of candidates will look like. Indeed, with final nominations not being decided on until later this month (with Sinn Féin highly likely to enter a candidate and the probability of one or two further independents entering the race), there is still a chance that the actual winning candidate may not yet have entered the race! With the formal campaign now officially started yet and with a number of candidates gaining ground across the different polls, this race is still very much up for grabs.
