Adrian Kavanagh, 19th February 2011
The Red C opinion poll, published in the 20th February edition of The Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 39%, Labour 17%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 25, Fine Gael 78, Labour 31, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 19.
The Millward-Brown opinion poll, published in the 20th February edition of The Sunday Independent estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 20%, Green Party 1%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 23, Fine Gael 75, Labour 36, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 19.
The Ispos-MRBI opinion poll, published in the 21st February edition of The Irish Times estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 19%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 26, Fine Gael 74, Labour 34, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 18.
The relatively similar support levels recorded in these polls show the main trends during the campaign – Fine Gael support rising from the mid-30s to the high 30s, Labour support falling from the mid-20s to the low 20s/high teens, Fianna Fail remaining stagnant in the mid teens, with Sinn Fein dipping somewhat to the low teens from the Doherty Drive-high recorded in the wake of the Donegal South Wet by-election. The seat estimates show a minority Fine Gael administraiton, supported by “like minded” independents (of which roughly 7-10 could be elected depending on the poll figures being studied), to be now a realistic prospect, while the relative strenght of Sinn Fein and the mini-Fianna Fail resurgence post-the mid January low for the party seems to offer the main threat to potential Labour gains.
The constituency support estimates and seat guesstimates based on the Red C-Sunday Business Post are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 21.3% | 49.0% | 18.2% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 13.2% | 40.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 31.4% | 11.8% |
| Clare | 17.4% | 51.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 6.1% | 20.1% |
| Cork East | 13.5% | 40.8% | 32.5% | 1.2% | 10.9% | 1.0% |
| Cork North Central | 11.8% | 33.9% | 17.8% | 1.3% | 12.1% | 23.0% |
| Cork North West | 24.0% | 64.5% | 9.7% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cork South Central | 19.0% | 45.3% | 17.4% | 4.0% | 9.9% | 4.4% |
| Cork South West | 17.2% | 53.8% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Donegal North East | 19.5% | 32.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 30.5% | 13.8% |
| Donegal South West | 20.2% | 34.1% | 4.9% | 0.7% | 38.1% | 2.1% |
| Dublin Central | 15.8% | 12.6% | 19.5% | 2.3% | 14.7% | 35.1% |
| Dublin Mid West | 14.4% | 31.1% | 20.8% | 5.2% | 18.2% | 10.2% |
| Dublin North | 18.0% | 22.2% | 17.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 29.0% |
| Dublin North Central | 16.2% | 34.9% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 6.3% | 28.7% |
| Dublin North East | 15.4% | 32.9% | 25.6% | 2.9% | 23.2% | 0.0% |
| Dublin North West | 18.7% | 14.1% | 33.9% | 1.2% | 27.1% | 5.1% |
| Dublin South | 19.2% | 47.0% | 21.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 0.7% |
| Dublin South Central | 10.9% | 17.5% | 30.2% | 2.1% | 15.0% | 24.4% |
| Dublin South East | 12.5% | 30.0% | 31.5% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% |
| Dublin South West | 13.7% | 26.0% | 30.5% | 1.4% | 19.1% | 9.3% |
| Dublin West | 12.7% | 25.6% | 25.2% | 1.4% | 7.3% | 27.7% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 13.4% | 33.7% | 26.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 18.9% |
| Galway East | 15.7% | 57.3% | 5.4% | 0.8% | 5.7% | 15.2% |
| Galway West | 13.5% | 27.4% | 17.5% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 34.6% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 10.1% | 38.6% | 15.3% | 0.7% | 29.6% | 5.6% |
| Kerry South | 13.8% | 31.6% | 20.0% | 0.7% | 5.4% | 28.6% |
| Kildare North | 14.2% | 28.3% | 27.3% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 24.3% |
| Kildare South | 23.1% | 29.2% | 41.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| Laois-Offaly | 27.9% | 50.3% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 11.4% | 4.6% |
| Limerick City | 22.1% | 43.0% | 20.4% | 1.3% | 8.6% | 4.6% |
| Limerick | 21.2% | 66.6% | 11.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 16.2% | 45.1% | 30.2% | 0.8% | 6.9% | 0.9% |
| Louth | 16.6% | 42.9% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 26.6% | 1.9% |
| Mayo | 7.5% | 61.2% | 7.5% | 0.3% | 7.0% | 16.5% |
| Meath East | 16.5% | 36.4% | 19.7% | 1.3% | 6.7% | 19.4% |
| Meath West | 21.6% | 45.1% | 7.4% | 1.2% | 21.2% | 3.6% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 14.1% | 52.7% | 18.5% | 0.7% | 13.7% | 0.3% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 15.4% | 54.8% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 19.8% | 2.3% |
| Tipperary North | 10.1% | 17.4% | 13.2% | 0.4% | 5.0% | 53.9% |
| Tipperary South | 7.4% | 21.6% | 10.5% | 0.5% | 3.8% | 56.3% |
| Waterford | 17.7% | 38.6% | 18.8% | 0.9% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
| Wexford | 16.4% | 45.4% | 23.3% | 0.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% |
| Wicklow | 6.9% | 25.3% | 21.0% | 2.4% | 6.6% | 37.6% |
| STATE | 16.0% | 39.0% | 17.0% | 2.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Galway West | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Wicklow | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 25 | 78 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
Constituency support estimates and party support guesstimates based on the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 21.6% | 47.1% | 21.7% | 2.0% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 13.5% | 39.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 32.1% | 12.1% |
| Clare | 18.0% | 50.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 6.3% | 20.7% |
| Cork East | 13.1% | 37.6% | 37.1% | 0.6% | 10.6% | 1.0% |
| Cork North Central | 11.8% | 31.9% | 20.8% | 0.6% | 12.1% | 22.8% |
| Cork North West | 24.6% | 62.7% | 11.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cork South Central | 19.3% | 43.5% | 20.7% | 2.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% |
| Cork South West | 17.4% | 51.7% | 20.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Donegal North East | 19.8% | 31.3% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 30.9% | 14.0% |
| Donegal South West | 20.4% | 32.7% | 5.8% | 0.3% | 38.6% | 2.2% |
| Dublin Central | 15.6% | 11.8% | 22.6% | 1.1% | 14.5% | 34.5% |
| Dublin Mid West | 14.5% | 29.7% | 24.6% | 2.6% | 18.3% | 10.3% |
| Dublin North | 18.3% | 21.5% | 21.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 29.6% |
| Dublin North Central | 16.4% | 33.4% | 13.9% | 1.1% | 6.3% | 29.0% |
| Dublin North East | 15.2% | 30.8% | 29.7% | 1.4% | 22.9% | 0.0% |
| Dublin North West | 17.9% | 12.8% | 38.1% | 0.6% | 25.8% | 4.8% |
| Dublin South | 19.5% | 45.2% | 25.2% | 2.9% | 6.4% | 0.8% |
| Dublin South Central | 10.5% | 16.1% | 34.4% | 1.0% | 14.5% | 23.6% |
| Dublin South East | 12.4% | 28.3% | 36.8% | 3.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% |
| Dublin South West | 13.3% | 23.9% | 34.7% | 0.7% | 18.5% | 9.0% |
| Dublin West | 12.4% | 23.7% | 29.0% | 0.7% | 7.1% | 27.1% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 13.3% | 31.5% | 31.2% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 18.6% |
| Galway East | 16.0% | 55.7% | 6.5% | 0.4% | 5.8% | 15.6% |
| Galway West | 13.4% | 25.9% | 20.4% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 34.4% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 10.1% | 36.5% | 18.0% | 0.3% | 29.5% | 5.6% |
| Kerry South | 13.6% | 29.5% | 23.1% | 0.3% | 5.3% | 28.2% |
| Kildare North | 13.9% | 26.2% | 31.4% | 1.0% | 3.8% | 23.7% |
| Kildare South | 22.2% | 26.6% | 46.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Laois-Offaly | 28.5% | 48.7% | 6.2% | 0.3% | 11.6% | 4.7% |
| Limerick City | 21.9% | 40.5% | 23.9% | 0.7% | 8.5% | 4.5% |
| Limerick | 21.7% | 64.5% | 13.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 15.7% | 41.7% | 34.6% | 0.4% | 6.7% | 0.9% |
| Louth | 17.0% | 41.7% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 27.3% | 2.0% |
| Mayo | 7.7% | 59.2% | 9.0% | 0.1% | 7.1% | 16.8% |
| Meath East | 16.3% | 34.2% | 23.0% | 0.6% | 6.6% | 19.2% |
| Meath West | 21.9% | 43.4% | 8.8% | 0.6% | 21.6% | 3.7% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 14.1% | 49.9% | 21.7% | 0.4% | 13.7% | 0.3% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 15.8% | 53.2% | 7.7% | 0.6% | 20.3% | 2.3% |
| Tipperary North | 10.0% | 16.3% | 15.4% | 0.2% | 4.9% | 53.2% |
| Tipperary South | 7.3% | 20.4% | 12.3% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 56.0% |
| Waterford | 17.5% | 36.3% | 21.9% | 0.4% | 11.4% | 12.4% |
| Wexford | 16.1% | 42.4% | 27.0% | 0.2% | 12.7% | 1.6% |
| Wicklow | 6.9% | 23.8% | 24.5% | 1.2% | 6.5% | 37.2% |
| STATE | 16.0% | 37.0% | 20.0% | 1.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cork South West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Galway West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 23 | 75 | 36 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
Constituency support estimates and party support guesstimates based on the Irish Times-Ispos-MRBI poll are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 22% | 47% | 20% | 8% | 4% | 0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 14% | 39% | 2% | 32% | 1% | 12% |
| Clare | 18% | 50% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 20% |
| Cork East | 14% | 38% | 35% | 11% | 1% | 1% |
| Cork North Central | 12% | 32% | 19% | 12% | 1% | 23% |
| Cork North West | 25% | 62% | 11% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| Cork South Central | 20% | 43% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 4% |
| Cork South West | 18% | 51% | 18% | 9% | 3% | 0% |
| Donegal North East | 20% | 31% | 10% | 31% | 1% | 7% |
| Donegal South West | 21% | 32% | 5% | 39% | 1% | 2% |
| Dublin Central | 16% | 12% | 21% | 15% | 2% | 34% |
| Dublin Mid West | 15% | 29% | 22% | 18% | 5% | 10% |
| Dublin North | 18% | 21% | 19% | 5% | 8% | 28% |
| Dublin North Central | 17% | 33% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 28% |
| Dublin North East | 16% | 31% | 27% | 23% | 3% | 0% |
| Dublin North West | 19% | 13% | 35% | 27% | 1% | 5% |
| Dublin South | 20% | 45% | 23% | 6% | 6% | 1% |
| Dublin South Central | 11% | 16% | 32% | 15% | 2% | 24% |
| Dublin South East | 13% | 28% | 33% | 9% | 7% | 10% |
| Dublin South West | 14% | 24% | 32% | 19% | 1% | 9% |
| Dublin West | 13% | 24% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 27% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 14% | 32% | 29% | 4% | 3% | 18% |
| Galway East | 15% | 59% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 14% |
| Galway West | 14% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 34% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 10% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 1% | 6% |
| Kerry South | 14% | 30% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 28% |
| Kildare North | 15% | 27% | 29% | 4% | 2% | 24% |
| Kildare South | 23% | 27% | 43% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
| Laois-Offaly | 29% | 48% | 6% | 12% | 1% | 5% |
| Limerick City | 23% | 41% | 22% | 9% | 1% | 4% |
| Limerick | 22% | 64% | 12% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 15% | 40% | 37% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| Louth | 17% | 41% | 9% | 27% | 3% | 2% |
| Mayo | 9% | 71% | 10% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
| Meath East | 17% | 35% | 21% | 7% | 1% | 19% |
| Meath West | 22% | 43% | 8% | 22% | 1% | 4% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 15% | 50% | 19% | 14% | 1% | 1% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 16% | 53% | 7% | 20% | 1% | 2% |
| Tipperary North | 11% | 17% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 53% |
| Tipperary South | 8% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 56% |
| Waterford | 18% | 37% | 20% | 12% | 1% | 12% |
| Wexford | 17% | 43% | 25% | 13% | 1% | 2% |
| Wicklow | 7% | 24% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 37% |
| STATE | 16% | 37% | 19% | 12% | 2% | 14% |
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Galway West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Wicklow | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 26 | 74 | 34 | 14 | 0 | 18 |
