The Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll, published in the 23rd February edition of The Irish Independent estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 20%, Green Party 1%, Sinn Fein 11%, Others 16%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 17, Fine Gael 78, Labour 37, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 20 (11 Left-leaning (including 6 ULA), 9 Right-leaning).
The Red C poll for Paddy Power (23rd February) estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 40%, Labour 18%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 10%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 21, Fine Gael 80, Labour 34, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 18 (11 Left-leaning (including 6 ULA), 7 Right-leaning).Seat levels for different coalition options, based on the Millward Brown Lansdowne figures, would stand as follows: Fine Gael/Labour 115 seats (majority of 64 seats), Fine Gael/”Right-leaning” Independents-Others 87 seats (majority of 8 seats), Fine Gael/Fianna Fail 95 (majority of 24 seats), Fianna Fail/Labour 54 seats, Fianna Fail/Labour/Sinn Fein 68 seats, “Left Coalition” 625 seats, Fine Gael/Green Party 78 seats, Fine Gael/”Right-leaning” Independents-Others/Green Party 87 seats (majority of 8 seats). As noted already, the Others grouping is a very broad church, involving a number of left-leaning independents and smaller parties (including the United Left Alliance grouping), as well as business/reform independents and disaffected former members of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour. Looking at the constituencies where the model assigns seats to the Others, it would look as if 11 of the 20 seats allocated would fall to left-leaning independents/smaller parties, including six seats for United Left Alliance candidates (Barry – Cork NC, Daly – Dublin N, Collins – Dublin SC, Higgins – Dublin W, Boyd Barrett – Dun L, Healy – Tipperary S).
Based on thes Milward Brown-Lansdowne poll figures the model estimates party support levels by constituency as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 20% | 49% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 12% | 41% | 2% | 30% | 1% | 14% |
| Clare | 16% | 51% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 23% |
| Cork East | 12% | 40% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| Cork North Central | 11% | 33% | 20% | 11% | 1% | 25% |
| Cork North West | 22% | 65% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Cork South Central | 18% | 46% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 5% |
| Cork South West | 16% | 54% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 0% |
| Donegal North East | 19% | 33% | 10% | 30% | 0% | 8% |
| Donegal South West | 19% | 35% | 6% | 37% | 0% | 3% |
| Dublin Central | 14% | 12% | 21% | 13% | 1% | 38% |
| Dublin Mid West | 13% | 31% | 24% | 17% | 3% | 12% |
| Dublin North | 16% | 22% | 20% | 5% | 4% | 33% |
| Dublin North Central | 15% | 34% | 13% | 6% | 1% | 32% |
| Dublin North East | 14% | 33% | 30% | 22% | 1% | 0% |
| Dublin North West | 17% | 14% | 38% | 25% | 1% | 6% |
| Dublin South | 18% | 47% | 25% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| Dublin South Central | 9% | 17% | 33% | 13% | 1% | 26% |
| Dublin South East | 11% | 29% | 36% | 9% | 3% | 11% |
| Dublin South West | 12% | 25% | 34% | 18% | 1% | 10% |
| Dublin West | 11% | 24% | 28% | 7% | 1% | 30% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 12% | 32% | 30% | 3% | 2% | 21% |
| Galway East | 13% | 60% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 16% |
| Galway West | 12% | 26% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 38% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 9% | 38% | 18% | 28% | 0% | 6% |
| Kerry South | 12% | 30% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 31% |
| Kildare North | 12% | 27% | 30% | 4% | 1% | 26% |
| Kildare South | 21% | 28% | 46% | 0% | 2% | 3% |
| Laois-Offaly | 26% | 51% | 6% | 11% | 0% | 5% |
| Limerick City | 20% | 42% | 23% | 8% | 1% | 5% |
| Limerick | 20% | 67% | 13% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 13% | 41% | 39% | 6% | 0% | 1% |
| Louth | 16% | 44% | 10% | 26% | 2% | 2% |
| Mayo | 8% | 73% | 11% | 8% | 0% | 0% |
| Meath East | 15% | 35% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 22% |
| Meath West | 20% | 46% | 9% | 20% | 1% | 4% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 13% | 52% | 20% | 13% | 0% | 1% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 14% | 56% | 8% | 19% | 1% | 3% |
| Tipperary North | 9% | 16% | 14% | 4% | 0% | 57% |
| Tipperary South | 6% | 20% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 59% |
| Waterford | 16% | 38% | 21% | 11% | 0% | 14% |
| Wexford | 15% | 45% | 26% | 12% | 0% | 2% |
| Wicklow | 6% | 24% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 40% |
Based on these constituency support estimates, the destination of seats by constituency would be guesstimated as follows (looking solely at first preferences and not considering likely transfer patterns):
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Clare | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cork South West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin South | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Galway West | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Wicklow | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 17 | 78 | 37 | 14 | 0 | 20 |
Based on the Red C poll figures, this model would estimate constituency support levels for the parties as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 20% | 49% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 13% | 43% | 2% | 27% | 2% | 12% |
| Clare | 17% | 53% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 20% |
| Cork East | 13% | 42% | 33% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| Cork North Central | 12% | 35% | 18% | 10% | 2% | 23% |
| Cork North West | 23% | 65% | 10% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| Cork South Central | 18% | 46% | 17% | 8% | 6% | 4% |
| Cork South West | 16% | 55% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 0% |
| Donegal North East | 20% | 35% | 10% | 27% | 1% | 7% |
| Donegal South West | 21% | 37% | 5% | 34% | 1% | 2% |
| Dublin Central | 16% | 13% | 20% | 13% | 4% | 35% |
| Dublin Mid West | 14% | 32% | 21% | 15% | 8% | 10% |
| Dublin North | 17% | 22% | 18% | 4% | 12% | 28% |
| Dublin North Central | 16% | 36% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 28% |
| Dublin North East | 15% | 34% | 26% | 20% | 4% | 0% |
| Dublin North West | 19% | 15% | 36% | 24% | 2% | 5% |
| Dublin South | 18% | 47% | 21% | 5% | 8% | 1% |
| Dublin South Central | 11% | 18% | 31% | 13% | 3% | 24% |
| Dublin South East | 12% | 30% | 31% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| Dublin South West | 14% | 27% | 31% | 16% | 2% | 9% |
| Dublin West | 12% | 26% | 26% | 6% | 2% | 27% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 13% | 34% | 27% | 3% | 5% | 18% |
| Galway East | 14% | 62% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 14% |
| Galway West | 13% | 28% | 18% | 4% | 3% | 34% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 10% | 41% | 16% | 26% | 1% | 6% |
| Kerry South | 13% | 33% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 28% |
| Kildare North | 14% | 29% | 28% | 3% | 3% | 24% |
| Kildare South | 22% | 29% | 41% | 0% | 5% | 3% |
| Laois-Offaly | 27% | 52% | 5% | 10% | 1% | 5% |
| Limerick City | 21% | 44% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 4% |
| Limerick | 20% | 67% | 11% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 15% | 43% | 35% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| Louth | 16% | 45% | 9% | 23% | 5% | 2% |
| Mayo | 9% | 74% | 10% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
| Meath East | 16% | 37% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 19% |
| Meath West | 21% | 47% | 8% | 18% | 2% | 4% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 14% | 54% | 18% | 12% | 1% | 1% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 15% | 57% | 7% | 17% | 2% | 2% |
| Tipperary North | 10% | 18% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 54% |
| Tipperary South | 7% | 22% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 56% |
| Waterford | 17% | 40% | 19% | 10% | 1% | 12% |
| Wexford | 16% | 47% | 24% | 11% | 1% | 2% |
| Wicklow | 7% | 26% | 21% | 6% | 4% | 37% |
| STATE | 15% | 40% | 18% | 10% | 3% | 14% |
Based on these constituency support estimates, the destination of seats would be guesstimated as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cork South West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Galway West | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Wicklow | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 21 | 80 | 34 | 13 | 0 | 18 |
As noted a number of times previously, this is a very rough model based on a “uniform swing” assumption – assuming that the national swing from the 2007 general election support levels to current opinion poll support levels would be replicated exactly in each constituency. As a result, this model does over-inflate constituency support estimates in constituencies where parties/groupings are already starting from a very high base; e.g. Fine Gael in Mayo, Labour in Kildare South, Others in Dublin Central, Galway West, Tipperary North and Wicklow. But, in terms of the overall national estimation of seat estimates it could be argued that the over-estimation of support levels in some constituencies is compensated for by under-estimating the probable party support levels in other constituencies; e.g. Fine Gael in Dublin Central and Wicklow, Labour in Dublin North Central and Louth, Others in constituencies such as Dublin South, Mayo, Wexford and Donegal North East - hence, the award of an extra seat to a party, or grouping, in an “over-estimated” constituency may be compensated by the “non-award” of a seat in an “under-estimated constituency”.
The high national support level for the Others grouping probably cannot be adequately illustrated as, given that it is based around 2007 support patterns, it cannot detect areas where new independent and small party candidates did not do well in 2007 but may poll exceptionally well in this coming election; e.g. Kilcoyne in Mayo, Blaney in Donegal North East, Ross in Dublin South, Somerville in Dublin South East, Dillon in Limerick, Wallace in Wexford. In thes case of constituencies such as Dublin South, Mayo, Limerick and Wexford, seats assigned by the model to the parties might well fall to such independents in the “real election”.
Fianna Fail’s percentage share of seats won is well below their admittedly disappointing percentage share of the vote in this poll – Fianna Fail would be winning 23 seats (Millward Brown-Lansdowne) or 25 seats (Red C) if their percentage share of seats was similar to that of their percentage share of the vote. The relatively low level of seats being allocated to Fianna Fail can be related to the party’s geography of support; their traditional catch-all pattern of support means that there are no dramatic regional variations in party support. This catch-all support pattern was a strength for the party when their national support level was polling in the high 30s and low 40s (and indeed my earlier poll analyses awarded Fianna Fail significant seat bonuses even when polls were estimating their support levels to be in the mid 20s), but it is a decided handicap for Fianna Fail once the party’s support levels fall to such a low level. When party national support levels are as low as this, a small party will win seats by relying on uneven support patterns – winning high support levels in some constituencies, in turn being balanced by winning very low support levels in other constituencies). For parties such as Sinn Fein and the Green Party, uneven geographies of support are usually a strength – if they were winning similar levels of support everywhere they would be struggling to win any seats at all. But if party support levels are evenly spread in relative terms, as is the norm with Fianna Fail, then a party with support levels in the low-to-mid teens will find itself with support levels below the quota in a significant number constituencies. This also ties in with my idea that there is for every party a “tipping point”, or even a number of such tipping points, in their national support levels – should their support levels fall below these “tipping points” then their seat losses will be particularly exacerbated, as indeed happened with Fine Gael in the 2002 election. It is also worth noting that this model does not take account of the fact that Fianna Fail’s loss in support will be accompanied by an equal decline in vote transfers from other parties. Furthermore, as Fianna Fail are running more than one candidate in all constituencies, the party’s declining support will be split between two or more candidates; a factor that could even see Fianna Fail seat losses being further exacerbated.
To make matters worse for Fianna Fail, one of the 17 seats allocated to the party, based on the Millward-Brown figures, in this model would be Seamus Kirk’s seat in Louth, held by virtue of his position as Ceann Comhairle. On these seat levels, the Fianna Fail parliamentary party would look something like this: Seamus Kirk, John McGuinness, Michael Moynihan, Michael Martin, Charlie McConalogue, Mary Coughlan, Mary Fitzpatrick, Michael Kennedy, Maria Corrigan, Sean Power, Barry Cowen, John Moloney, Willie O’Dea, Niall Collins, Declan Breathnach, Brendan Kenneally, John Browne.
If the likely transfer toxicity of Fianna Fail in this election is also factored in, as well as the impact of splitting the party vote between two or more candidates, the it is likely that some of these 17 seats (or 21 seats in the case of the Red C poll), assigned by the model to the party, would fall out of Fianna Fail’s hands. Some of these seats may also fall into the hands of strong new independent candidates, which the model cannot take account of, as discussed earlier.
The model predicts that Fine Gael would win 78 seats based on the Milward Brown-Lansdowne figures and 80 seats based on the Red C figures. The reality is that the party would also be highly likely win a seat in Dublin Central which the poll fails to detect due to the low base of support there from the 2007 election (of course, there may be other constituencies where the Fine Gael vote is over-estimated and the seats predicted here may not fall to the party – possibly the third seats in constituencies where the party is predicted to win three out of four seats, while the high level of Fine Gael seats predicted within Cork may possibl not arise following the election of a Fianna Fail leader from that county). Over and above the 79-81 seats level (once Dublin Central is included), are there any other constituencies where Fine Gael could realistically win extra seats to push them closer to an overall majority? The most likely contenders would include a seat in Dublin North West, second seats in Dublin North and Meath East, and a third potential seat in Cavan-Monaghan and Wicklow. As the party’s national support levels edges closer to the 40 per cent mark and the “Kenny Krusade” gains pace, the prospects of an overall Fine Gael majority increase, but on the present high-30s poll levels it must be said the party effectively requires a perfect storm of good fortune in terms of vote transfers and political opportunity spaces across a number of constituencies in order to hit the magic 83 seat mark. However, the likelihood of an overall majority for the party could be heightened further should Fine Gael-leaning voters turn out to vote in greater numbers than those supporting other parties on Friday – in which case Fine Gael poll standings in the high 30s could well translate into an election result in the low 40s and the ultimate achievement of the overall majority.
Over the course of the past few months, these poll analyses have observed a Gilmore Gale (especially over the summer and autumn of 2010) surge in Labour support, then later (in the wake of the Donegal South-West by-election and the Budget) in December 2010/January 2011 a “Doherty Drive” and “Kenny Krusade” surge in Sinn Fein and Fine Gael support, with a mini “Martin-mo” revival in Fianna Fail fortunes in late January 2011. Ultimately the post-Budget ”Kenny Krusade”, accompanied by a “Noonan-Nudge”, would appear to have been the most significant of all these trends in terms of shaping this weekend’s election result and the composition of the next government, though it looks as if (barrign the adverse effects of differential voter turnout levels) the Gilmore Gale and Doherty Drive should also translate into Labour and Sinn Fein seat gains. But what of the Martin-mo? Unless this picks up momentum over the next few days, or unless candidate effects and higher turnout propensity amongst Fianna Fail-leaning voters act to save the party, what is likely to be a bad weekend for Fianna Fail could turn out to be a very, very bad weekend…
